Stop overthinking decisions


In this week’s newsletter:

  • The problem with thinking your way to certainty
  • Self-trust + decision-making
  • An experiment for when you're circling a decision

Hi, it’s Aine.

Sometimes we keep thinking about a decision because we need to gather more information.

There are also times when we have enough information to make a reasonable choice, but we keep going back over it anyway.

We reconsider all our options, look for other angles, ask people’s opinions, or start imagining new things that could go wrong. But what feels like continuing to research or being cautious can actually be an attempt to find certainty.

The problem with trying to think your way to certainty

Many decisions can’t be solved by perfect analysis because the missing variable is the future.

Circular thinking can start when your brain treats an uncertain decision as though one more round of analysis will make it risk-free. Your brain is designed to use what it already knows to estimate possible outcomes. It draws on past experience and current information to compare options and anticipate likely consequences.

But we can’t know in advance exactly how a business offer, relationship decision, project, career change, or other meaningful choice will turn out.

Eventually, you reach the edge of the information you can obtain.

And beyond that point, more thinking doesn’t necessarily give you more evidence. It can turn into an endless thought loop of generating more possible futures.

It can be difficult to accept that action has to come before proof. Some of the information you want will only become available AFTER you choose, take action, and get feedback.


This is where self-trust comes in

Self-trust is confidence that you can make a reasonable decision, live with some uncertainty, notice what happens next, and adjust as needed.

Your brain doesn’t just make a choice; it also estimates how confident you should be that the choice is correct. This is a form of metacognition, and that feeling of confidence isn’t the same as accuracy.

You can feel certain and be wrong. You can also make a sound decision based on solid available information and still feel uncertain.

Self-trust is knowing why you made the choice you did, and accepting that a reasonable decision doesn’t require eliminating every possible downside. It also means that even if the outcome isn’t what you hope for, you trust yourself to use that new information to adjust and deal with what happens next.

The catch is that if you keep reopening a decision until you feel completely certain, you never get to the experiences that build self-trust - because it happens on the other side of the decision.


A quick writing experiment for when you're circling a decision

Write quickly (remember, these work when you write instead of just thinking through them). Set a timer for 10 minutes if it helps you stay on track.

Step 1, Name the decision

Write: “The decision I’m circling or that I keep re-opening is…”

Be as specific as you can. Specificity helps our brain interrupt the loop.

Step 2, Separate out what you know right now

Write two short lists:

What I know

  • What facts, experiences, constraints, or information do I already have?
  • What have I already considered?
  • What advice have I already received that I respect?

What’s in my head that might not be fact

  • What potential outcomes am I trying to prevent?
  • What am I afraid this decision could mean if I don’t get it ‘right’?
  • Which of these are possibilities, not fact?

Step 3, Find the edge

Write responses to these:

  • Is there one specific piece of information I could realistically get that would change my decision?
  • If yes, what is it, and how will I get it?
  • If no, what am I hoping more thinking will give me certainty about?

This takes you to the edge of the decision, the point where more thinking is no longer going to produce more evidence.

Step 4, Take the next reasonable action

Write: “Based on what I know right now, my best next step is…”

Then, “I’ll take this action on or by [time/date].​
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Step 5, Leave yourself room to adjust

Write: “If this doesn’t go as I hoped, I can respond by…”

Self-trust develops when you take action and know you can meet what happens next.

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​Cheers to a week of action over circling,

– Aine

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JournalingFix: Brain X Writing Newsletter

Brain science based, super quick writing prompts to get unstuck, think clearly, and follow through - so you can close the gap between what you're capable of and how your days actually go. Stop losing time and energy to the same loops, avoidance, and mental spin - and then use those shifts to build what’s next.

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